Category
Lessons about probability, margin, prices and market structure.
Implied probability translates a decimal price into a percentage using 1 / decimal odds x 100 . Odds of 2.00 imply 50%, 1.50 implies 66.67%, and 4.00 implies 25%. Those percentages reflect the price, not an objective chance, and a complete bookmaker market normally totals more than 100% because margin is embedded in the prices.
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Convert every decimal price in one complete market into implied probability, add those probabilities, then subtract 100%. For a three-way market priced at 2.10, 3.40 and 3.60, the total is 104.81%, so the displayed overround is 4.81%. That is a price comparison measure, not a forecast of who will win.
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